This tool lets you predict the probability of different outcomes and statistics, such as risk level and probability of default of an investment portfolio. These complex figures are not easily determined due to the involvement of random variables.
Monte Carlo simulations use repeated random sampling based on a known distribution. Monte Carlo simulations assume perfectly efficient markets. In finance specifically, our questions of interest might not have deterministic solutions since factors such as sales volume, exchange rate, and the change of tax laws could be hard to predict. With Monte Carlo simulations, we can assign multiple values to an unknown variable and take the average to achieve an estimate.
Using historical data, this calculator is able to provide estimated return and risk percentages for the portfolio that is specified and also gives a percentage estimate for the likelihood of defaulting in 10, 20, and 30 years.